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- What's Next for the Golden State Warriors? - GIVEMESPORT
- Golden State Warriors put Andrew Wiggins on trade block: 3 ideal trade scenarios - Sportsnaut
- NBA rumors: Chris Paul could return to Warriors as veteran leader - FanSided
- Klay grateful seeing No. 11 jersey-wearing fan after Warriors' loss - NBC Sports Bay Area
- Ranking the 3 biggest disappointments from the Golden State Warriors' season - Blue Man Hoop
- Klay Thompson bristles at question about future after possible final Warriors game - New York Post
Back-to-back!
Can we say, I told you so? Can we give ourselves a pat on the back? Okay, okay. We weren’t the only ones who predicted that the Warriors would repeat as NBA champions, but We Did Predict It. Just sayin’.
A Tougher Title
Winning the championship was definitely harder for the 2017 – 18 Warriors than the previous year’s team. The Warriors in 2016 – 17 lost one game the entire playoffs, and that didn’t happen until the NBA Finals (game four loss to the Cavs, preventing a sweep and a perfect playoff run). The 2017 – 18 Warriors lost one game in each of their first two series and then lost three games — gasp! — in the Western Conference Finals against Houston. The Warriors regained their dominance in the NBA Finals against their old friends the Cavaliers, getting the sweep they couldn’t the year before.
The Warriors had more of a struggle in 2017 – 18 because, simply put, they weren’t as good as they were in 2016 – 17. They were also facing better competition, New Orleans and Houston in particular. Houston fans might also say that the Warriors were lucky and shouldn’t have won the championship at all. Hmm…
The Rocket Effect
The Houston Rockets were considerably better in 2017 – 18 than we anticipated. The addition of Chris Paul made a major difference. Just as importantly, in our opinion, was the continued improvement in Clint Capela’s game. Anthony Davis is the best big in the NBA. Capela may be number two. Capela rebounds, blocks shots, defends and defends in space, and finishes at the rim like nobody’s business. Finishing at the rim is the extent of Capela’s offensive game but it doesn’t matter; this works perfectly in tandem with a James Harden or Chris Paul pick-and-roll (Harden in particular). Capela is an ideal complementary player and a modern day NBA big prototype, in significant part because of his ability to switch out on defense and guard in space.
As good as Capela is, Draymond Green did a fantastic job against him in the Western Conference Finals. The fact that Capela is so much bigger than Green makes Green’s performance even more impressive. Yes, it hurt the Rockets when Chris Paul got injured. Of course. But it hurt the Warriors, a lot, when Andre Iguodala was injured. With Iguodala in the lineup the Warriors were up against Houston 2 games to 1, and that’s with a Houston home court advantage. Without Iguodala it was a 2 – 2 series.
Chris Paul is better than Iguodala, and was more important to his team. But Iguodala is an impact player, smart and under control, and very good defensively. Houston was hurt by injury and so were the Warriors. With Paul and Iguodala both in the lineup and healthy, the Warriors win in six games — maybe five.
Disappointing Performances
We praised the 2016 – 17 offseason signings of Nick Young and Omri Casspi. Casspi was ultimately waived before the playoffs, to make room for the ascending Quinn Cook, but while he was with the Warriors Casspi had some good moments, especially early in the season. He also had some not-so-good moments. Casspi can rebound and score a bit, he sees the floor well, he’s a willing and pretty good passer, and he makes great cuts without the ball. He’s not good defensively, is not a good shooter, and does not finish well on offense. Casspi is an NBA player but he’s a bench role player, best suited as the third or fourth option on the second unit.
We love Nick Young’s personality but his 2017 – 18 performance was poor, particularly considering that the Warriors gave him their full mid-level salary cap exception (five million dollars plus). Young doesn’t shoot well, he doesn’t get to the rim off the dribble, he’s a poor defensive player, and he has a low basketball IQ. Young’s entire game is being an inconsistent, streak scorer. That’s good enough to be the ninth or tenth player in a rotation, maybe. It’s just as likely that Young doesn’t get an NBA contract in 2018 – 19 and plays out the rest of his professional career overseas.
Patrick McCaw is another player who disappointed in 2017 – 18. This was particularly confounding given how well McCaw played the year before as a rookie, when he logged important regular season and playoff minutes. Not only did McCaw not improve from his rookie season, he actually got worse. McCaw is a solid defensive player. His clear weakness is his offense. He has no offensive game to speak of; he’s not a good shooter and he cannot reliably put the ball on the floor and get to the rim.
McCaw also comes across as having low confidence. His personality and his body language indicate, to us at least, that he doesn’t feel like he belongs in the elite stratosphere of the NBA. If he really does feel that way that’s obviously a problem. 2018 – 19 is very important for McCaw’s NBA career. Either he establishes himself as an NBA player in 2018 – 19 or he doesn’t. If he doesn’t then his NBA career is essentially over.
Needs for 2018 – 19
The Warriors are consensus picks to win another championship in 2018 – 19. While we don’t disagree with this take, we believe it will be much more difficult than many seem to anticipate. Firstly, winning three NBA championships in a row is an incredible challenge: the physical and mental effort required to do it is huge; every other team wants to knock you off the throne; and there will be teams who are improved over the season before.
Secondly, the Warriors didn’t clearly improve themselves over last season. Their biggest roster change was acquiring DeMarcus Cousins. A healthy DeMarcus Cousins is a huge boost, but he’s not healthy. Cousins won’t be available to play for some time — our guess is February, perhaps even March. This timeline helps the Warriors for the playoffs but how effective will Cousins actually be? Will he ever truly regain his form? If Cousins is not a dominant player at some point this season, the Warriors are basically relying on their core from last year to win them another championship. Will that be enough? Will the core remain healthy?
For the Warriors to win a championship in 2018 – 19 two things must happen.
1. The core group of players — Durant, Curry, Green, Thompson, Iguodala, and Shaun Livingston — must remain healthy and also, of course, productive.
2. Young players must improve and produce. This group includes: Jordan Bell, Quinn Cook, Damian Jones, McCaw, and rookie Jacob Evans. Among this group, we have the most confidence in Bell and Cook. We also believe the rookie Evans will eventually prove to be a solid player.
If Cousins returns and plays well, it gives the two steps above a big boost.
Prediction
We’ll be optimistic and predict that the Warriors’ core group will stay healthy and productive, their key younger players will step up, and Cousins will eventually make a significant contribution. If this doesn’t happen, if one of the steps is missing, it’s anyone’s championship in 2018 -19. Regardless of what happens, we believe 2018 – 19 will be the last year the Warriors are considered head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Free agency and the natural attrition that occurs over time in professional sports will see to that. But for now…
Threepeat! The Golden State Warriors repeat as champions in 2018 – 19!