Golden State Warriors 2017 – 18: News, Analysis, and Predictions

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Champs!

The Golden State Warriors met all of the heavy expectations in 2016 – 17 and, just as importantly, got revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers, by winning the NBA championship. 2016 – 17 was an exhilarating ride for Warriors fans, and the way it ended was a great relief. Can you imagine if the Warriors hadn’t won the championship, after the kind of team they assembled, or if they had lost to Cleveland again?

Good night. But it never happened… Huzzah!

The Durant Effect

Lots of punditry claimed the Warriors won the Championship on July 4, 2016, the day that Kevin Durant announced he was signing. This is not entirely wrong as Durant was — surprise, surprise — enormous for the Warriors, and they probably do not win the title without him. Durant is an unstoppable scorer, a very good rebounder, and a good passer and defender. His superb performance in the Finals wasn’t just impressive it was necessary, to offset the Superman (with a bit of help from the referees) effort from LeBron James.

LeBron James is still the best player in the NBA but Durant, and a few others, are very close behind. No player in the NBA has Durant’s combination of size and open court skills. He’s a unicorn, and the Warriors are very fortunate to have him.

The Big Three

Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson were the core of the Warriors 2014 – 2016 championship runs, and all three were very good again in 2016 – 17. Curry struggled somewhat initially but eventually found his groove, and he was terrific in the Finals. Curry’s actions during, and after, the Finals made clear that he badly wanted redemption for the 2015 – 16 Finals collapse. Curry’s play in the Finals made clear too that he was not healthy during the 2015 – 16 Finals. He was so much more productive and nimble in this year’s Finals.

Remember the play where Curry put LeBron James into a blender — back and forth, back and forth — before finishing with a layup (and a triumphant yell)? Curry didn’t come close to that sort of play during the 2015 – 16 Finals. Curry also benefited from having a productive wing on the floor in Durant during the 2016 – 17 Finals, versus 2015 – 2016 when Harrison Barnes missed one open shot after another until Cleveland collapsed off of him and onto Curry and Klay Thompson.

Draymond Green is the best all-around power forward in the NBA. He’s not great at any one thing except, perhaps, as a one-on-one defender; but he’s good to very good at several things: shot blocking, rebounding, pushing the fast break and creating offense. He’s not an exceptional offensive player but he is solid, and can shoot the three. His intensity and desire is so great that it gets the better of him at times, but his tenacity and toughness, and leadership, are extremely important to the Warriors.

The Weakest Link

Klay Thompson is the 3 and D prototype: a wing who can shoot three pointers and play good individual defense. Thompson’s defense is truly exceptional. He wasn’t able to shut Kyrie Irving down completely in the 2016 – 17 Finals but Thompson did slow Irving down considerably, especially early in the Finals when the Warriors were putting games in the bank.

Thompson struggled offensively during much of the playoffs and it underscores a problem with his game — he’s too one dimensional on offense. Thompson’s offensive game is shoot the three and he does that well, but not anything else. He’s not explosive off the dribble so he doesn’t do well getting to the rim; he’s also not a good finisher, so those times when he does get to the rim he often doesn’t score. Thompson needs an in-between game, something where he’s not always shooting the three but also doesn’t have to try and get to the rim. Right now he’s too much catch-and-shoot, and not enough two or three dribbles and then a shot from inside of the three point line.

We’ve heard the talk that Thompson may, eventually, look to leave the Warriors so he can more establish himself as an impact player. Thompson’s limitations have nothing to do with playing for the Warriors and everything to do with his shortcomings on offense. Unless Thompson improves his offensive game he’ll be a very good role player, but not a standout impact player, no matter who he plays for. Durant, Curry, and Draymond Green are great players. Klay Thompson is a good player.

New Additions

The Warriors front office did a fantastic job this offseason… again. They upgraded the bench by signing long, versatile wings Nick Young and Omri Casspi, who replace, essentially, Ian Clark, Matt Barnes, and James Michael McAdoo. Clark is a solid player, not especially good but solid. Barnes is an older player who was not productive for the Warriors during the post season, and whose career is probably over. McAdoo is a marginal NBA player, at best, and will be playing overseas before long.

Young and Casspi are not great players but they are good; much better than either Clark, Barnes, or McAdoo. Young and Casspi are also good three point shooters who should make the second unit much better offensively than it was last season. If they play solid defense, they will be a big boost.

And then there’s Jordan Bell…

We’re high on Bell. He’s not perfect, his offense is lacking, but he’s a good defender who’s long and athletic, and can defend multiple positions; he’s a good rebounder and one-on-one defender; and he’s a terrific shot blocker. Bell probably won’t play enough to win Rookie of the Year but he will be one of the top rookies in the league in 2017 – 18, and will make a significant impact on the Warriors. Bell reminds us of Dennis Rodman, with a bit more offense. He may not be as good as Rodman was, but he will be a good player and will play in the NBA for years.

The Big Mistake

The Warriors front office had a fantastic offseason, making a championship team even better, but they weren’t perfect. Their biggest error, by far, was signing Andre Iguodala to a three year, fully guaranteed, 48 million dollar contract. Iguodala is an impact player, very good defensively, and a presence in the locker room; but his productivity at this stage of his career, and his age (33), do not warrant that type of contract. Iguodala’s contract was based on past performance, not current productivity or future potential, and past performance contracts, especially big ones like Iguodala’s, are a killer.

Iguodala’s contract was the Warriors way of thanking him, and establishing to other players that they are loyal. Okay. But Iguodala’s deal is on the Warriors tax heavy books for three years, and will hinder their capacity to make more personnel magic — unless they trade him or buy him out. How loyal will they seem if they do that? Iguodala’s contract will absolutely be an issue for the Warriors going forward, and managing it will not be easy.

Crystal Ball

The Warriors will win the championship again in 2017 – 18. The thing most likely to prevent this is significant injury to Durant or Stephen Curry. If Draymond Green or Klay Thompson is injured it would hurt, no question, but there are players on the roster who could more or less replace them (Jordan Bell, Omri Casspi, Nick Young, separately or in combination). There is no adequate replacement on the roster for Durant or Curry.

If Durant and Curry succeed at remaining healthy, the Warriors are still the best team in the NBA — even with a number of teams who’ve improved since last season — and they will win their first ever consecutive championship. Back-to-back!

The Golden State Warriors, 2017 – 2018 NBA champions…